The International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that Nigerians may face tougher economic conditions in the near-term, as rising food and transportation costs continue to squeeze household incomes amid lingering global shocks.
The Fund also raised concerns about Nigeria’s growing debt burden, even as crude oil prices surged above $113 per barrel in the international market, offering potential upside for government revenue. The price rally, driven partly by uncertainties around US–Iran peace talks linked to Middle-East tensions, has created expectations of stronger oil earnings for Nigeria.
At current levels, Nigerian crude trades about $53 above the $60 per barrel benchmark set in the 2026 budget. Market data showed Brass River crude at $113.82 per barrel and Qua Iboe at $113.72. Prices have risen sharply from about $64.85 at the start of the year and $68.05 by January’s end, supported by geopolitical tensions.
IMF Director of the African Department, Abebe Selassie, speaking at a press briefing on the “Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa’ during the World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington DC, said the crisis is already worsening living conditions across the region, including Nigeria.
“The immediate effect will be quite a bit of pressure, including on food security, either through the limited availability of fertilizer, expensive fertilizer, or even more immediately, as transportation costs have gone up, it’s going to raise the cost of food and so quite a bit of dislocation”, he said.
“We’re already seeing quite a lot of increase in transportation prices that people are facing already. Transportation costs are very high for people in urban areas, rural areas even more so”, he added.
Highlighting household hardship, Selassie said: “We are already seeing quite a bit of a pinch from the crisis on people. It is making life difficult for people”.
On Government response, he urged continued reforms despite limited fiscal space: “What is it that governments can do given the limited fiscal space? First point I need to make is we shouldn’t underestimate just how much governments have done to try and position themselves better to weather more of these shocks”.
The IMF also projected Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio to rise to 33.1% by 2027, slightly below its earlier estimate of 35.3%, but still higher than the 32.3% forecast for 2026. Nigeria’s total public debt stood at ₦159.27 trillion in Q4 2025, according to the Debt Management Office.
